This is not a prediction it is just a list of things to look for as possible signs before a market rolls over. Alone these are just possibilities but the probabilities increase as more of the signs are in place. Don’t forget, context is extremely important. Do not trade these signs mechanically and expect to have good results. Always judge the strength of any directional move in terms of market internals, overall pattern, tempo, and where the current range sits in relation to prior areas of balance.
- When the RSI gets near 70 on the daily chart, the price momentum slows, and the the price settles into a trading range.
- A shooting star Doji candlestick.
- If the market opens higher, but fails to go over the opening price level for the entire trading day, this is a sign that buyers are rejecting higher prices.
- The market opens below the previous days trading range and never gets over the previous days low, that is an early sign of a new trading range.
- The market starts to open higher but closes lower, that is a sign of distribution.
- The average daily trading range increases and volatility starts to grow.
- A huge volume day that gaps way up and then sells off into negative territory on high volume.
- An index is far extended from all major moving averages.
- A major “good news” event is passed with little up movement, and the market is out of catalysts.
- When the majority is against you short selling the market.
These are just things to look for going forward and could result in nothing more than a pullback to a prior value area, short term moving average, or a new range being traded. There are times to buy a breakout and times to wait for a pullback. There is a fine line between chasing the market higher and buying momentum.
With that said, “We have great challenges and great opportunities, and with your help, we will meet them together!” – Jason
Learn. Trade. Profit.