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S&P 500 Futures (/ES) Market Profile for Wednesday, 03/07/2018.
- Value Area High – 2729.25
- Point of Control – 2726.75
- Value Area Low – 2719.50
- Pivot Point – 2722.25
Good Morning, $ES_F as of this writing at around 7:00 am EST, the market would be opening Out of Balance lower & around the S2 Pivot Point of 2699.75. Overnight inventory in my eyes is pretty much 100% net to the short side with futures currently down -26.00 points as of this writing. Also, Gap Rules are in play…
Things to note this morning, S&P Futures from yesterday was Neutral to Bullish until right after close & news broke that Gary Cohn resigns as Trump’s Top Economic Adviser. Now I’m looking at the charts as Bearish & what looks to be a Spike & Flag pattern. One thing I want to make sure there’s an understanding on is once there’s a big news event or big reaction off of a news event, I don’t use much of the recent past say price action. I look at what just happened in price, make sure I go with that direction, but risk manage for acceptance or rejection. With acceptance, I’d expect a minimum of a Measured Move or Double Down lower in price, & with rejection, price will most likely come all the way back to where it started at a minimum.
Going into today (after looking at price action from overnight), I believe levels that need to hold today for Seller’s to stay in control today are an Initial Resistance Level of 2710.25 ish & needing to hold/stay below 2719.50 ish level. For the Buyer’s, I think as long as price is below 2719.50 ish going into today, not much chance for the Buyer’s. “If Aggressive”, your looking for Seller Failure (if noticeable) at today’s Key Support Level’s below on Team Day Trader Worksheet to buy long. Otherwise I would look for price to break above 2719.50 & hold a pullback before buying this market long. So let’s recap, rips should be sell-able till price above 2719.50 ish, above gets vulnerable & a chance for Buyer’s to take back control.
Your focus should be on levels & where value develops. Levels to watch price action today are going to be the reaction around 2700.50, & if price closes above 2710.25 or below 2681.25.
Don’t forget, **Sequence = Failure, into Strength, into Pullbacks, and back to retest the Highs or Lows. CONTEXT is extremely important. Do not trade any setup mechanically and expect to have good results. Always judge the strength of any directional move in terms of market internals, overall pattern, tempo, & where the current range sits in relation to prior areas of balance.
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